Question 1

Are Dubai property prices falling?

Accepted Answer

Modestly, unevenly, and mostly where the most speculative buying had been. On registered sales, the median price per square foot across Dubai was AED 1,689 over the latest three complete months, -4.7% against January and February 2026, and sales ran at 10,733 a month, -25%. Independent valuers put the quarterly falls at 3.8 per cent in the first quarter and 4 per cent in the second.

Question 2

How much have prices fallen since the war?

Accepted Answer

Across all residential sales registered with the Dubai Land Department, the median price per square foot was AED 1,772 in January and February 2026 and AED 1,689 over the latest three complete months, -4.7%. Villas fell more than flats: the villa median moved from AED 1,822 to AED 1,579, the flat median from AED 1,753 to AED 1,695. Ready homes moved from AED 1,480 to AED 1,419 and off-plan from AED 1,836 to AED 1,727.

Question 3

Is it a crash?

Accepted Answer

No. A crash is a fall of a fifth or more with buyers absent. Dubai's registered median is down under 5 per cent, sales are still running at more than 10,000 a month, 61 per cent of second-quarter deals were cash, and off-plan launches kept registering. What happened is that sales fell further than prices: volume is down about a quarter while prices are down a twentieth. The buyers who paused were the foreign investors; residents kept buying.

Question 4

Which communities fell most, and which held?

Accepted Answer

Palm Jumeirah AED 3,116 per sq ft (-16.4% since February, 58 sales a month). Business Bay AED 2,097 per sq ft (-20.4% since February, 305 sales a month). Downtown Dubai AED 2,584 per sq ft (-11.0% since February, 148 sales a month). Against that, Dubai Marina AED 2,215 per sq ft (-3.7% since February, 181 sales a month), Jumeirah Village Circle AED 1,411 per sq ft (-4.3% since February, 779 sales a month) and International City AED 681 per sq ft (-4.2% since February, 101 sales a month). The trophy districts repriced; the established mid-market held.

Question 5

Why do off-plan prices register higher than ready homes?

Accepted Answer

Because new launches are priced as new stock in prime locations, and because the off-plan median reflects what developers are launching rather than what the city's older housing is worth. Off-plan registered at a median of AED 1,727 per square foot over the latest three months against AED 1,419 for ready homes. The gap is the premium a buyer pays for a payment plan and a new building; whether it is justified depends on the community's resale market at handover.

Question 6

What do the valuers say?

Accepted Answer

ValuStrat recorded the first quarterly fall since the pandemic in the first quarter of 2026, 3.8 per cent. Cushman and Wakefield put second-quarter prices down 4 per cent on the quarter and rents down 6 per cent, with about 32,000 more homes due this year. Betterhomes reported second-quarter transactions down 31 per cent on the year and resales down 59 per cent while off-plan held. The Land Department register, which this site tracks, agrees with all three.

Question 7

Is now a good time to buy in Dubai?

Accepted Answer

It is a better time to negotiate than January was, and a worse time to buy on momentum. Prices are off their peak by a few per cent, sellers of ready homes have fewer buyers, and developers are offering longer payment plans. The risk is supply: tens of thousands of units are due over the next two years, and communities with the most launches will feel it. Buy where resale volume held and where the price per square foot has not moved, and treat a community whose median fell a fifth as a negotiation, not a bargain, until its volume returns.

Question 8

Where can I follow the numbers?

Accepted Answer

The Dubai Property Index on this site publishes the median price per square foot and sales by month and by community from Land Department records, updated weekly, with a weekly email alert for anyone who wants it in their inbox.

Are Dubai property prices falling? What the Land Department records show